I'm wondering if I should start
packing my bags. Not for Christmas -- for good. Apparently, we're on course for
2014 to be declared the hottest year ever, both globally and for the UK.
So if we go on like this, at some
point Mother Earth will become uninhabitable. True, not in my lifetime, or
yours -- but according to one study, it could happen in about 300 years from
now. Which, in evolutionary terms, is the twinkling of an eye.
I tend to be a great believer in
the power of human ingenuity. I reckon that, on the whole, the human species
has shown itself to be remarkably adept at finding solutions to the challenges
that threaten us.
For example: when our ancestors
realised that raw meat was less easily digested than cooked meat, they started
to cook it. When they noticed that babies die in cold temperatures, they swaddled
them. When they started to work out how they were infecting each other with
life-threatening diseases, they invented drugs. And when they decided they were
over-breeding, they came up with contraception.
On the other hand, as the
financial investment advertisements always remind us, past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Just because we've managed to survive so far
doesn't mean we'll survive for ever.
Which brings me to the other news
item that caught my eye: NASA's plan to launch a new spacecraft which, one day,
could take us to Mars. (A planned launch on Thursday was postponed because of
technical problems.) Mars, of course, is the one planet theoretically within
reach of Planet Earth that just might somehow be able to support some form of
life.
I remember many years ago hosting
an international phone-in programme on the BBC World Service when we asked listeners
if they thought the billions being spent on research into manned space travel
was money well spent. (I've just looked it up -- it was in February 2003, after
the loss of the US space shuttle Columbia, and the deaths of all seven
astronauts on board.)
You can still read some of the
comments online. Typical was this one: "Manned and unmanned space
exploration are both extremely important to the future survival of the human
species." And that was a view reflected by many of our callers, who said
we've got to keep exploring space because one day we'll have to find a new
planet to live on.
I have nothing against space
travel -- indeed, as a life-long obsessive traveller, I'd happily slip into a
space suit and blast off into the bright blue yonder tomorrow if the price was
right and I could be guaranteed a safe return.
But I don't share the view that
the future of the human race depends on colonising another lump of rock. For
me, our future lies right here, on this planet -- and it's up to us to ensure
that it remains habitable.
What I find so frustrating is
that it really isn't difficult to reduce carbon gas emissions and slow the
process of climate change so that we can stay where we are. Retro-fitting of
existing buildings, more investment in renewable sources of energy and less
carbon-hungry means of transport -- all would be good for the creation of new
jobs and exports, and good for the future of the planet as well.
And if, for some reason, you
still don't believe that climate change has anything to do with human activity,
here's the latest from the UK Met Office. According to Peter Stott, Head of Climate
Attribution, their latest research shows that "current global average
temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without human influence on the climate.
Human influence has also made breaking the current UK temperature record about
ten times more likely."
OK, so what if 2014 turns out to
be the hottest year on record? One freak result proves nothing. But here's
another one of those unfortunate statistics that, in a sane world, should
persuade the climate change sceptics finally to admit defeat: 14 of the 15
warmest years on record have all occurred since the beginning of this century.
Nothing to do with us? Sorry, the
evidence is overwhelming. Fortunately, it seems that governments are coming
round to the same view, and the international climate change talks currently
under way in Peru may end with an agreement that really could make a
difference. At last, China and the US, the world's two biggest carbon
polluters, are working together on an emissions reduction formula that could work,
while safeguarding the interests of the world's poorest countries who are
desperate for economic expansion.
So no, I won't be packing my
bags. I like the planet I was born on -- and I remain convinced that we will
find a way to ensure that it remains human-friendly.
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