So here is my prediction. (Warning: my crystal
ball is badly cracked, covered in dust, and its operating system hasn’t been
upgraded since the day before yesterday.)
Here goes:
Next Tuesday, the government’s EU Withdrawal Bill
will be defeated in the House of Commons.
On Wednesday morning, after a steady stream of
Cabinet ministers have been observed entering and leaving Number 10, Theresa
May will make the following statement to reporters in Downing Street:
‘After last night’s vote in the House of Commons,
I have consulted widely with colleagues and others to decide on how best to
move forward. I have concluded that, in the national interest, I should now
step down as leader of the Conservative party in order to allow a new person a
chance to take our country into the next chapter of our glorious history. I
shall continue to serve as prime minister until a new leader has been elected.
‘As I have said many times during the Brexit
process, I have been guided throughout by what I have judged to be the best
interests of our country and of our people. As it is now clear that my
judgement is not shared by a majority of members of parliament, or by several
members of my Cabinet, it is only right that I should make way for someone else
to lead our party and our country.
‘It continues to be my view that it is the duty of
government to carry out the wishes of the 17.4 million people who voted Leave in
the Brexit referendum two and a half years ago. Voters were given a solemn
undertaking that their wishes would be respected, and we owe it to them to
fulfil that undertaking. That is why I wrote the so-called Article 50 letter in
March 2017, beginning the process by which the UK would withdraw from the
European Union.
‘However, in view of the difficulties that have
since arisen, and of the need to find a withdrawal mechanism that respects both
the will of the people and commands the support of parliament, I have today
written again to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, to
withdraw that letter as we are entitled to do without seeking the approval of
other EU member states, in accordance with this week’s ruling by the European
Court of Justice.
‘As a result, the UK will remain a full member of
the European Union until and unless a new leader begins the withdrawal process
anew. I am confident that my successor will want carefully to consider whether
to seek the country’s approval again before making a decision.
‘I have taken this action in order to allow my
successor the greatest possible freedom of action. It would not be right for me
to hand over the baton with the count-down clock still ticking and with too little
time left to develop a new approach to the greatest challenge our nation has
faced since the end of the Second World War.
‘The choices that we face remain exactly the same
as they were on 23 June 2016: to remain in the EU, to leave with an agreed
withdrawal framework and a new negotiated trading relationship, or to leave
with no agreement in place. It will now fall to a new leader to decide how best
to choose which of those options will serve our nation best.
‘When I took office in 2016, I made this pledge: “As
we leave the European Union, we will forge a bold new positive role for
ourselves in the world, and we will make Britain a country that works not for a
privileged few, but for every one of us.” That has been my single aim every day
since then, and I now leave it to others to take that work forward.’
And then? I’m afraid at this point, my crystal
ball shatters into tiny pieces. But by this time next week, who knows, perhaps
I’ll no longer need it.
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