Perhaps Donald Trump isn’t quite as popular with US voters as
his victory might suggest. He won fewer votes than Hillary Clinton (blame the
bizarre mechanism of the electoral college for the fact that he still won); he
won fewer votes than the losing Republican party candidate in 2012, Mitt
Romney, and he won far fewer votes than Barack Obama did four years ago.
As for the
electoral college, who was it who complained on the eve of the election that it
was ‘a disaster for democracy’? Yup – Donald J Trump. I wonder how he feels
about it now.
Thought number 2: This
was not a victory born out of the anger of white working class voters. It was
among the country’s huge white middle class that he won his biggest margins,
and white women voted for him in unexpectedly large numbers. If Mr Trump is a
bigoted misogynist, which his comments and behaviour certainly suggest, then it
seems that many women are prepared to forgive him his apparent boorishness.
Thought number 3:
For journalists, commentators and pundits, Trump’s victory (I refuse to call it
a triumph) was, in the words of the Washington
Post’s media commentator Margaret Sullivan, ‘an epic fail’. She quoted the
billionaire entrepreneur Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal: ‘The media is
always taking Trump literally. It never takes him seriously, but it always
takes him literally.’
Voters, on the
other hand, did the opposite – they took him seriously without believing every
word he said. Build a wall along the border with Mexico, and get the Mexicans
to pay for it? We’ll see. (And by the way, there’s already a wall or fence
along about a third of the border.) Lock up Hillary Clinton? Hmm. Deport 11
million undocumented immigrants? I wonder …
Thought number 4: Notwithstanding
all the above, I agree with David Remnick, editor of the The New Yorker: ‘The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is
nothing less than a tragedy for the American republic, a tragedy for the
Constitution, and a triumph for the forces, at home and abroad, of nativism,
authoritarianism, misogyny, and racism. Trump’s shocking victory, his ascension
to the Presidency, is a sickening event in the history of the United States and
liberal democracy ... It is impossible to react to this moment with anything
less than revulsion and profound anxiety.’
And if you think
this is an over-reaction, let me share with you a comment from a friend who
lives in North Carolina: ‘My
daughter came home from school yesterday upset because she had seen two kids
crying in her class. They were apparently scared of being deported by Trump
(the latter were her exact words). She also had a discussion with a friend on
the bus home, and her friend told her that being gay was now going to be
banned. They are 12 years old! This is having a real effect on kids - just the
fact that I have to lie to my child and tell her that everyone will be safe is
an abnormality after an election. It turned my stomach.’
What most worries
my American friends is the long-term effect that a Trump presidency and a
Republican-controlled Congress will have on the make-up and the future decisions
of the US Supreme Court. You can kiss goodbye to any hopes of a change to the
gun laws, and even abortion rights, as enshrined in the historic Roe v Wade judgment
of 1973, could come under threat.
For those
of us who don’t live in the US, the major worries are Trump’s views about NATO
(the Baltic states will now be especially uneasy), and his threats to tear up
most of the US’s foreign trade agreements. He seems to think he can reverse the
process of globalisation single-handed; I suspect he’s wrong but he could do
immense damage to the global economy while he tries.
And the
lessons to be learnt? That the profound social and economic changes of the past
50 years have left millions of people feeling frightened and ignored. That the
word ‘change’ is the most powerful word in the political lexicon – even if it
might be a change for the worse, for many voters, it’s still worth the risk.
And that
the liberal era with which my generation came of age – championing feminism,
multi-culturalism, gay rights and internationalism – may be drawing to a close.
Authoritarians
of the world – Trump, Putin, Farage, Xi Jinping, Erdogan – unite; you have
nothing to lose but a decent, tolerant world in which parents don’t have to lie
to their children about feeling safe.
" He seems to think he can reverse the process of globalisation single-handed; I suspect he’s wrong but he could do immense damage to the global economy while he tries."
ReplyDeleteWhile we have been sold the global economy as a good thing for many years by many governments across the world, there are nevertheless many economists who have acknowledged the downside of this in both democratic terms and in the ever-widening split between the rich and poor. With profit being the only consideration of global companies, with no global tax rules, with revolving doors in most countries for politicians looking to serve themselves once out of office, with the Euro being seen as a disaster for some European countries ... I could go on and on. I agree with you that Trump is generally an utter disaster and also dread what the future might hold - but... If the constant march towards globalisation continues unabated then you will have growing inequality in all countries, and growing unrest. Brexit and Trump are warnings which should be addressed, not ignored.