I am
inescapably reminded of Sir Walter Scott: ‘Oh, what a tangled web we weave, When
first we practise to deceive!’ Yes, Brexiteers, I’m talking to you.
Take
back control? By all means. Restore the sovereignty of the Westminster
parliament? Please, go ahead. But do not then have the brass neck to whinge
about the three High Court judges who on Thursday ruled that the government
does not have the right to steamroller Brexit through without parliamentary
approval. You wanted it? You got it. So stop moaning.
Even
if the judges’ ruling is overturned by the Supreme Court, the cat is out of the
bag. Theresa May has been trying to take the UK out of the EU on her terms,
only her terms, and nothing but her terms.
She
won’t get away with it, and nor should she. She doesn’t believe in it, she
wasn’t elected to do it, and most MPs don’t believe in it either. Yes, the UK
will leave the EU, but No, she can’t ignore parliament.
The
judges have not derailed Brexit. They have not tried to subvert the popular
will. They have simply upheld the law, and the constitution of the land, under
which parliament is sovereign. Remainers should put away their balloons;
Thursday’s ruling has not stopped Brexit in its tracks.
Even
so, ‘tangled web’ doesn’t begin to describe the mess we’re in. MPs may now have
to have to choose between either doing what they believe to be best for the
country, or what the majority of their constituents voted for on 23 June. Are
they representatives, or are they delegates? The only political answer that
makes sense is that they must act as representatives who know what the
consequences will be if they vote against the wishes of their constituents.
We
are also now plunging into deep and uncharted Euro-legal waters over whether or
not an application to leave the EU by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon
treaty is irreversible. It isn’t, according to the man who wrote it, Lord Kerr
of Kinlochard, who as Sir John Kerr was the UK’s ambassador to the EU and then
head of the diplomatic service.
He
told the BBC: ‘It is not irrevocable. You
can change your mind while the process is going on. During that period, if a
country were to decide actually we don’t want to leave after all, everybody
would be very cross about it being a waste of time. They might try to extract a
political price but legally they couldn’t insist that you leave.’
Mrs May says different. In the words of the High
Court ruling: ‘The
process for withdrawal is governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European
Union, which states that once a Member State gives notice to withdraw there is
a two-year period in which to negotiate a withdrawal agreement … The Government
accepts that a notice under Article 50 cannot be withdrawn once it has been
given.’
We
shall see. In the end, it’ll be the politicians as well as the judges who will
decide, and I have little doubt that if MPs are asked to approve the
government’s intention to invoke Article 50, they will do so, against their own
convictions, but at a price. And that is where the web will become yet more
tangled.
MPs
will want to be able to scrutinise every dot and comma of the government’s
negotiating strategy. If Nissan – and presumably other foreign-owned car manufacturers
– can be furnished with a blank cheque to persuade them to stay put, what about
pharmaceutical companies, or aircraft manufacturers, or financial services?
Every MP with a company in their constituency that depends on exporting to the
EU will want special treatment. Tangle upon tangle upon tangle.
And
that’s without even beginning to factor in the special interests of the 27
remaining members of the EU. If the Walloons can almost derail a painfully
negotiated EU trade agreement with Canada, just think what they could do to any
proposed deal with the UK. After all, everyone loves the Canadians, which is
more than can be said for the wretched Brits.
Spare
a thought, for example, for Ireland’s mushroom growers. Five Irish mushroom
farms have already gone out of business since the UK’s Brexit referendum,
because the collapse in the value of the pound has meant they can no longer be
competitive while paying all their costs in euros. Eighty per cent of Ireland’s
mushrooms are exported to the UK, as are 84% of its poultry exports and 65% of
its cheddar cheese exports. So we’re not winning a lot of friends in Ireland,
nor indeed in Spain, which is our biggest supplier of fruit and vegetables.
What
Mrs May won’t admit is that the future shape of the UK’s relationship with the
EU does not depend only on her, nor even on parliament. It takes two to strike
a new trade deal, so if she needs help on learning how to tango, perhaps she should
call on Ed Balls.
When
Boris Johnson said the government would make a ‘Titanic success’ of Brexit, he
may well have been much closer to the truth than he intended. There are
icebergs ahead and there will be storms aplenty before we reach them.
Excellent piece Robin - thank you.
ReplyDeleteGreat exposition of the problems we face and will continue to face. The tyranny of
ReplyDeletethe 37% will haunt us for years.
With the passion that this Government has for privatisation and/or out-sourcing, it should hardly be surprising that there is a hideous shortage of civil servants with both the knowledge/experience and the availability to drop what they've been doing to head off to organise the reality of Brexit. Goodness knows, given the background of most MPs they're certainly not up to the job themselves. So – how long will it take to get the experts in place? Will they be experts? Or simply be available? This is one job that can't be out-sourced to the likes of Capita and G4S – or we surely hope not!
ReplyDeleteBritain will no doubt eventually get over this shambolic screw-up but it could take several years and by that time it might well take a whole lot longer to climb back up the ladder to a place where we can call ourselves one of the top countries in the world again. Such a waste.
I agree with Flo above the article was excellent. As a Bremain campaigner, I have now quoted your blog many times
ReplyDelete